GOP Hail Mary? GOP claims entire reconciliation bill will be tossed by Parliamentarian UPDATE: Reid knows reconciliation could be tossed – his plan all along?

There is a lot of skepticism about this.

In essence, it seems that reconciliation cannot be used to impact social security in any way. However, in the reconciliation bill the House Democrats state that they will raise additional revenues for social security.

Presumably, this was added as one of the many ‘marketing’ clauses in the bill, which allows Democrats to tout the benefits as they campaign leading up to the mid-term elections in November.

Ace of Ace of Spades explains this last ditch effort:

So the GOP’s floating of this objection is an 11th hour attempt to make House Democrats realize reconciliation won’t happen, so as to make them vote “No.”

Here’s the argument:

DON STEWART, McCONNELL SPOKESMAN: “Republicans have been trying to set up a meeting with Senate Democrats since yesterday to discuss this fatal point of order but have been met with nothing but silence. We suspect Democrats are slow walking us so as to have the House vote first. Since Senate Democrats refuse to meet with us and the arliamentarian, we’ve informed our colleagues in the House that we believe the bill they’re now considering violates the clear language of Section 310g of the Congressional Budget Act, and the entire reconciliation bill is subject to a point of order and rejection in the Senate should it pass the House.”

BACKGROUND

DEMOCRAT LEADERSHIP RELEASE: “The Congressional Budget Office estimate of the health care legislation shows an increase in Social Security revenues… CBO projects that the resulting increase in wages will generate $29 billion in additional FICA contributions to the Social Security Trust Fund.” (“Health Care Reform Update,” Office of Rep. Steny Hoyer, 3/21/10)

CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET ACT: “LIMITATION ON CHANGES TO THE SOCIAL

SECURITY ACT.—Notwithstanding any other provision of law, it shall not be in order in the Senate or the House of Representatives to consider any reconciliation bill or reconciliation resolution reported pursuant to a concurrent resolution on the budget agreed to under section 301 or 304, or a joint resolution pursuant to section 258C of the Balanced Budget and Emergency Deficit Control Act of 1985, or any amendment thereto or conference report thereon, that contains recommendations with respect to the old-age, survivors, and disability insurance program established under title II of the Social Security Act.” (Congressional Budget Act Of 1974, Sec. 310g, P. 31)

So, I think, the attempt to divert SS payments into this bill is illegal (and of course it’s a gimmick in the first place to get a better CBO number, once again double-counting a revenue source) and so the reconciliation will fail.

ALLAHPUNDIT of Hot Air is one of those that remains skeptical:

If this was something other than a hail mary, wouldn’t the GOP have floated it yesterday or the day before, when waverers hadn’t yet tied their own hands by publicly committing to yes? It feels desperate, even if there’s something to it, and no one wants to run away from an enemy who they know is desperate. Which is another way of saying don’t count on any Stupakers getting cold feet over this.

Former Senator Rick Santorum is making a case that Harry Reid not only knows that the entire reconciliation bill could get tossed, but that it may very well be Reid’s plan.

Mitch McConnell and other Republican leaders in the Senate have been trying to get Reid to have the Parliamentarian make a ruling on the social security issue.  Reid has refused to get such a ruling:

“Now here’s the interesting thing,” Santorum said. “Mitch McConnell and the Republican leadership have been pleading with [Senate Majority Leader] Harry Reid to meet with the parliamentarian to get a ruling on this before the House votes. Senate Democrats have refused to meet with the parliamentarian to get a resolution on this issue. So as a result, there’s still the open question.”

Asked if Senate Democrats were sandbagging House Democrats, Santorum said: “My old friend Dick Armey used to say, when he was the Republican [majority] leader and he would talk about the Democrats, he said, ‘The Democrats are the opposition, the Senate is the enemy.’ In this case, the Senate truly is sandbagging House Democrats who are voting for this thinking it’s going to be fixed, and it’s not going to be fixed.

Santorum said the errant attempt at using reconciliation is being done at the behest of the president and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

So, it would seem that Reid may very well know that there is a substantial chance that the entire reconciliation bill could be tossed due to the social security issue, which would leave health care where he wanted it all along — the Senate health care being the law of the land, full of all the kick backs and special deals.