Dick Morris says Republicans could take control of Senate in November

There is still a lot of campaigning and liberal spinning to do between now and the November elections, but based on current polling the Republicans are in a very good position to either take control of the Senate, or failing that, leave Democrats with only a two or three seat majority.

Dick Morris says that based on current Rasmussen polling, the Republicans could pick up 10 seats:

If the Republican Party wins every senate seat in which it now holds a lead, according to Rasmussen’s polls, it will capture eight Democratic seats while holding all of its own. The two remaining pickups, to assure control, could be in Indiana where former Senator Dan Coats may run against Senator Evan Bayh and in California.

The two remaining pickups, to assure control, could be in Indiana where former Senator Dan Coats may run against Senator Evan Bayh and in California. Even if Coats does not run, former Congressman John Hostettler is only behind Bayh by 44-41. And, in California, former Hewlitt Packhard CEO Carly Fiorina is also only three points behind Senator Barbara Boxer.

A lot is left to be written in this story.  The Republicans have to hold on to their own seats while picking up 10 Democratic seats.  This is no simple feat.  Public opinion needs to remain negative towards President Obama and the Democratic Congress for such a large swing to occur.

That public opinion will likely be defined by three key issues:

1. If the health care debate remains a long, drawn-out process marked by back room deals, many Independents will continue to lean right.  On the other hand, if it is quickly passed OR dropped, support from Independents could begin to return for the Democrats.
2. Jobs and the economy.  Most Republicans and Independents believe the stimulus has been a failure and waste of money.  If America continues to hemorrhage jobs, and if the second stimulus bill Jobs Bill appears to simply be more reckless spending and pay offs to liberal special interests, we will likely see Independents break the way they did in Massachusetts.
3. Card check and National Labor Relations Board (NLRB).  There is talk that the Democrats may try and back door card check by attaching it to the second stimulus bill.  The theory being that if they can sell the bill to the public as having big tax breaks for small businesses and the middle class, and containing other benefits meant to create jobs, then the Republicans will have a hard time keeping all 41 GOP votes in line for a filibuster, even with card check hidden in the bill.  On top of that, Obama has signaled that if the Senate does not confirm Craig Becker to head the NLRB, that he could make him a ‘recess’ appointment, thereby bypassing Senate confirmation.  As polls have shown, America is no longer a union-friendly country.  There could be a large public backlash from Obama bypassing the Senate and putting one of Andy Stern’s VERY radical SEIU guys in charge of such an important position.  Especially considering the fact that SEIU spent $60 million dollars helping Obama get elected, and that Obama and Congressional Democrats paid the unions back when they cut a $60 billion deal to give union members tax breaks that no other US citizen would get.  This of course happened during their televised on C-SPAN closed-door health care meetings at the White House last month.  If Obama and Congressional Democrats ram through Becker’s appointment and slip card check through as an amendment on the second stimulus bill, it will confirm once and for all that the hope and change that Independents bought when electing Obama, really was just a campaign lie.

There are certainly some other issues on the table that could sway voters in either direction over the next nine months, but these three issues will go a long way in determining what message voters will send President Obama and Congressional Democrats in November.