Six years ago, Harry Reid won his Senate seat easily with over 60% of the vote. However, the picture is much different today and isn’t expected to get much better for Reid when he tries to win re-election in November.
Hot Air discusses Reid’s predicament:
What are the odds that a guy given to rambling about “negro dialects” in front of reporters will make any more mistakes before November? Incidentally, Rasmussen also shows him sinking further below the waves today thanks to the revelations in “Game Change,” which leaves the Dems with a nasty dilemma: How much worse do things have to get before the party establishment starts leaning on him to retire? That’s an easy call in the case of someone like Dodd but the moral dimension is tougher with Reid.
PPP shows Reid’s popularity among black voters wavering after his “negro dialect” comments:
Reid gets only 52% of the black vote against Sue Lowden and Danny Tarkanian in the poll, a weak standing for a Democrat to be sure, and worse than the 61% Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman gets in the survey. With Republicans and independents in the state pretty universally lined up against him Reid’s margin for error with his base voters is very low and that 52% figure is not going to get the job done. Whether that standing is a short term reaction to the ‘negro’ revelation that will subside or a long term problem that will plague Reid remains to be seen.
This much seems clear: Reid’s standing for reelection was perilous a week ago and now it looks even worse. Even an error free 2010 might not be enough for him to keep his seat, and any further mistakes will reduce his chances of winning to about nil. Look for the numbers tomorrow on whether Dems would be better off with someone else.
Recent polls show that Reid is trailing all three potential Republican candidates by healthy margins (two by 12% or more). Whether through his own doing or arm twisting by President Obama, Reid has become the poster child for all that is wrong in Washington. From the closed door meetings locking out Republican leaders, to the deals he cut with Ben Nelson, Mary Landrieu, Bernie Sanders and others to buy their votes, he has led the Senate in a way that most Americans find offensive.
While Vegas likely doesn’t have the odds of Reid retaining his seat quite as bad as the Detroit Lions winning the 2011 Super Bowl, they probably aren’t far off.